IEA Warns Oil Supply Disruptions Could Persist Into 2027

The International Energy Agency has warned that the continuation of the US-Iran conflict and the lack of a swift settlement could keep global oil markets under pressure, with disruptions to crude flows from the Middle East potentially lasting until 2027.

In its monthly report issued Friday, the agency said global oil supply could decline by around 2.5 million barrels per day this year compared with last year, significantly exceeding its previous August estimate of a 1.6 million-barrel-per-day decline.

The IEA noted that global inventories have so far helped offset part of the supply shortfall. However, declining available reserves and refineries operating close to their maximum capacity could intensify pressure on oil markets.

The agency stressed that resolving conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war has become increasingly important to prevent further supply disruptions and additional increases in global fuel prices.